Electroencephalography (EEG) has been used to forecast seizures with varying success. There is an increasing interest to use electrocardiogram (ECG) to help with seizure forecasting. The neural and cardiovascular systems may exhibit critical slowing, which is measured by an increase in variance and autocorrelation of the system, when change from a normal state to an ictal state. To forecast seizures, the variance and autocorrelation of long-term continuous EEG and ECG data from 16 patients were used for analysis. The average period of recordings was 161.9 h, with an average of 9 electrographic seizures in an individual patient. The relationship between seizure onset times and phases of variance and autocorrelation in EEG and ECG data was investigated. The results of forecasting models using critical slowing features, seizure circadian features, and combined critical slowing and circadian features were compared using the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The results demonstrated that the best forecaster was patient-specific and the average area under the curve (AUC) of the best forecaster across patients was 0.68. In 50% of patients, circadian forecasters had the best performance. Critical slowing forecaster performed best in 19% of patients. Combined forecaster achieved the best performance in 31% of patients. The results of this study may help to advance the field of seizure forecasting and lead to the improved quality of life of people who suffer from epilepsy.
Wenjuan Xiong, Ewan S. Nurse, Elisabeth Lambert, Mark J. Cook, and Tatiana Kameneva.
Published on 31 July 2021
International Journal of Neural Systems